Preface
The process of social collapse in Iran has become serious for ten years and the spread of anomie has progressed to such an extent that every day the news about murder and crime and the increasing spread of moral and social corruption announce the collapse of Iranian society. Along with this, economic collapse is also happening rapidly. The sharp increase in inflation and the decrease in the purchasing power of the people on the one hand, and the halt in economic growth, the rise in the poverty line, and the placing of a large part of the society below the poverty line, have become so widespread that the central bank’s report on Iran’s economic collapse, even if it entered into the normalization of relations If he joins the world, negotiates the JCPOA and sells oil and lifts sanctions, the problem will still not be solved and the economic collapse of the country will make the life of the people in Iran more and more difficult day by day. However, these two unexpected events do not necessarily mean the downfall of the government and do not necessarily lead to political collapse. According to one of Iran’s political thinkers, as long as prisons, guns, and television are in the hands of the government, the political collapse will not happen easily. But it seems that the leader of the Islamic Republic has a serious intention to follow the path of political downfall in a not-so-long process.
Pathology of Iran’s political collapse
The election of 1400 and the coming to power of Ebrahim Raisi and the unification of the government practically paved the way for the political downfall, the cases that indicate a serious political crisis of the government include the following:
The removal of a large part of the political forces close to or within the government :
the Islamic Republic practically eliminated all its rivals before the elections, the rivals who ran the country from 1357 to 1400 times and made the country’s executive system survive and not collapse. . Perhaps the arguments of many subversive opposition forces against the reformists, who called them continuityists , were once annoying from the point of view of people like me, who considered myself to be a reformist, but its reality can not be denied. In fact, the managers of the bureaucracy, technocracy, and diplomacy of the country who carried the burden of the government, together with the elimination of people like Mustafa Tajzadeh and other reformists, Ali Larijani and moderate fundamentalists, Jahangiri and the forces of brokers and moderates close to Hashemi Rafsanjani and even Ahmadinejad and Abadgaran, who were all eliminated, meant the dismissal and expulsion of managers who for years not only They had run the country, which was often blamed for the destructions that were usually done by currents close to Khamenei, such as Ammarion . What actually happened was that the reformists and moderates were running the country and promoting growth and development projects and diplomacy. But they were always accused of not working and all the backwardness of the country was attributed to them. In fact, the government was seriously obstructing its own government and did not allow it to move. Khamenei also constantly pointed his finger at accusations towards them and introduced them as the culprits of all the country’s problems, and the radio and television, propaganda and media organizations, and the IRGC also acted against the government. It is not difficult if I say that the amount of damage caused by the IRGC, the judiciary, the legislature, and supporters of the Leader and Radio and Television against the governments Various, especially Khatami and Rouhani, were not less than the impact of Israel and America, domestic and foreign opposition and other opponents of the government. With the inauguration of a president, the government was deprived of the body of technocracy, bureaucracy, and effective diplomacy, and the burden of responsibility fell entirely on the shoulders of the supporters of the leader of the Islamic Republic regime.
the conformity of the government and the government and problem of accountability:
in the past 26 years, except for the first five years of Ahmadinejad when the government and the government (actually the leader) were in agreement, the rest of these years, Khamenei practically avoided the burden of accepting responsibility. Now the same situation has happened again. The difference is that firstly, Ahmadinejad took over the government from Khatami with a full fund, and secondly, he had an average of one hundred billion dollars in oil sales per year. Therefore, an important part of his weaknesses could be compensated by spending money, but currently, the government of Ebrahim Raisi does not even have enough money to support people’s daily life and is facing serious problems. In addition, Ahmadinejad had a high reaction speed in the government and in front of the media, as well as the ability to use connected with the people in favor of the leadership and himself, but Raisi is just a clumsy caricature of a president. Someone who does not have the ability to speak, does not have a trusted network of relatives, and does not have an executive team, can not become an icon (statue) that will be noticed at the level of society or Islamic countries, or the left of the world. As a result, a mafia system run by an informer and a military network run by Vahid Shahcheraghi (Sardar Vahidi ), the Minister of the Interior, practically establishes a military government in the country by appointing a group of IRGC in all provinces. Such a government is responsible for suppressing possible riots caused by widespread public discontent, but it does not have the ability and efficiency to manage the service system, industry, and complex sectors of technocracy and bureaucracy. The presidential government does not have the power attract and the desire to attract experts, nor are the experts willing to cooperate with an ideological government. In fact, if until now the executive branch was accused of incompetence by the leader, and the leader shied away from the burden of responsibility, now people’s fingers are pointing directly at the leader. And this causes the reduction of political authority and the movement toward political collapse.
The ideological gap and the propaganda system:
The leader’s words a few weeks ago about the need for the interaction of pro-leadership forces and that he wanted to soften the interaction between his supporters in cyberspace, show his fear of cyberspace. He said: ” Today, you can publish correct and correct thoughts and answer questions in the virtual space, and you can literally wage Jihad .” These words more or less remind us of his heroic gentleness before the nuclear negotiations. Virtual space, including Twitter, Clubhouse, and Instagram, as well as YouTube and Facebook, are almost the place of media. The official has practically taken over the radio and television. In the clubhouse, two groups of the most extreme opposition forces inside and outside the country, and the closest supporters of the leader of the Islamic Republic, sit together and talk to each other. This dialogue necessarily imposes democracy on both groups. In fact, the Law of Freedom of Assemblies and Parties, which the Ministry of Interior has prevented from being implemented for years, is easily accessible to various forces in the clubhouse. This incident also makes the opposition abroad more familiar with the reality of the Islamic Republic and reduces the intensity of Don Quixote‘s views . And it reduces the hostile antagonism of the leader’s supporters with the opposition abroad. Both sides have to allow their enemy to speak in order to be heard. It also causes the opposition abroad to be updated. The result of this incident will actually reduce the amount of ideology among the pro-government forces and create a wide gap among them. It also destroys the domestic and foreign opposition forces, who until now looked at each other as rivals, or accused each other of being foreign mercenaries and government reformers. Although the injection of money by the government for the presence of forces supporting the government tipped the scales on the other side It makes it heavier, but the lack of reasoning system among the government forces actually benefits the moderate currents both among the supporters of the government and among the opposition forces. And this is ultimate to the detriment of the ideological government.
the corrupt repression system :
In the sixties and seventies, the forces leading the repression often had ideological attachments, the most important feature of the anti-American behavior of Khamenei and the Ahmadinejad government was the corruption of the security forces and repression. If the Hezbollah youths in the sixties supported Khomeini and even Khamenei in the seventies, these forces were not yet corrupted, and according to Ibn Khaldun, the government has entered its third stage from the second stage. Ibn Khaldun believes that ” in the second stage, relying on The strong nervousness left over from the previous period, the territory and political and economic authority of the government, especially the Sultan, is increasing. and a kind of autocracy is formed in him, which gradually causes him to stay “in the third stage: “Is the period of comfort and taking advantage of the achievements of the government. At this stage, due to the filling of the government coffers, the expansion of the country has stagnated, and peace-seeking and satisfaction with the existing situation is spreading among the ruling class and the military. In the fourth and fifth stages, according to Ibn Khaldun, ” In the fourth stage, due to the stagnation of economic and military activities, pressure and aggression prevail over the people, to the extent that due to the loss of the popular base and ethnic nervousness In the fifth stage, in the small most powerful attack of new nervousness will break the government. Corruption caused by the opposition to the sanctions, which imposed the heavy cost of circumventing the sanctions on the shoulders of the people and put them in the pockets of the embezzlers who currently have a serious presence in the presidential government, as well as the corruption caused by the Ahmadinejad government, which actually killed the revolutionaries supporting the leadership. It turned into billionaires of the new ideological class, in the words of Milvan Gilas, they are not capable of fighting outside the border or suppressing the streets. On the other hand, the existing government loses the ability to cover the cost of repression and the financial management of the propaganda system day by day, as a result, any rebellion can quickly become a major movement against the government. Maybe in the 80s and 90s, moderate reformers and fundamentalists faced the fall of the government, but with their expulsion from the system and the loss of their social capital, practically every rebel can quickly overthrow the system that has the ability to suppress itself due to lack of money and Ideology is losing more day by day, turning into a big crisis.
The siege of Iran by the border opposition:
after the death of Qassem Soleimani, the Quds Force, which owed an important part of its credibility to its commander, practically lost its power, and gradually the defense shield of Iran, which includes the countries of Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, and Armenia It was, and it was without problems with Azerbaijan, Turkey and the countries of the Persian Gulf. After the establishment of the Taliban in the seat of power, Pakistan supported the Taliban, Afghanistan, the Republic of Azerbaijan, Turkey, and even Iraq. The election of the anti-Iranian majority in the Iraqi parliament completed the siege. In fact, Israel advanced from Azerbaijan and Kurdistan to the border of Iran, while until a year ago it was Iran that extended its power to Lebanon and Gaza. This isolation among neighbors and even their enmity against the Islamic Republic will add to the political crisis of the Islamic Republic.
Sixth, dominoes of rebellion :
Today, the government is facing a serious problem with people’s livelihood. Despite the increase in oil prices, Iran must either go to the next JCPOA or solve its problems with China and Russia and stay with them. But even China will not be willing to refer Iran over America and the world if the sanctions are lifted, and basically, the Iranian market is like a small shop in China’s huge economy. All of this has increased dissatisfaction among the people and practices at any time it can lead to rebellion among the hungry and people who are struggling below the poverty line. In such a situation, the government of Ebrahim Raeesi can face a huge crisis at any moment, a crisis that the leadership cannot blame on the reformists, nor on the fundamentalist moderates, or no the clerics and the government that is not under the leadership. All these factors increase the possibility of political collapse, in fact, there is no need to overthrow, the leader of the Islamic Republic is working alone to destroy his own government. Let us never forget how quickly and easily the gap between the fall of several absolute powers in Egypt, Libya, and Iraq happened despite the great military power and ability to suppress all these governments, and Iran is no exception to this rule.
All this shows us that the government can fall, but in the meantime, there must be opposition to accelerate this process and prevent the destruction of the country. The opposition that exists today is full of crisis. Perhaps we can see an important part of the government’s crises in its enemy. In other notes, I will deal with the pathology of the opposition.
Professor Siavosh Kaviani was born in 1961 in Tehran. He had a professorship. He holds a Ph.D. in Software Engineering from the QL University of Software Development Methodology and an honorary Ph.D. from the University of Chelsea.
